| Riding | note | Vote Margin | % Margin | Lead Non-Con | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener--Waterloo | 5 | 17 | 0.01% | Liberal | donate |
| Vancouver South | 20 | 0.01% | Liberal | donate | |
| Egmont | 55 | 0.3% | Liberal | donate | |
| Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca | 2 | 68 | 0.1% | Liberal | donate |
| Brampton West | 231 | 0.4% | Liberal | donate | |
| Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar | 5 | 262 | 1% | NDP | donate |
| Welland | 300 | 0.6% | NDP | donate | |
| Kitchener Centre | 5 | 339 | 0.8% | Liberal | donate |
| Mississauga--Erindale | 397 | 0.7% | Liberal | donate | |
| Edmonton--Strathcona | 5 | 463 | 1% | NDP | donate |
| Saint John | 5 | 497 | 1.4% | Liberal | donate |
| Western Arctic | 5 | 523 | 3.8% | NDP | donate |
| Oak Ridges--Markham | 545 | 0.7% | Liberal | donate | |
| Brampton--Springdale | 773 | 1.7% | Liberal | donate | |
| Burnaby--Douglas | 798 | 1.7% | NDP | donate | |
| Malpeque | 924 | 4.9% | Liberal | donate | |
| South Shore--St. Margaret's | 932 | 2.3% | NDP | donate | |
| Surrey North | 1106 | 3.2% | NDP | donate | |
| Sault Ste. Marie | 1111 | 2.7% | NDP | donate | |
| Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean | 1436 | 3.9% | Bloc Quebecois | donate | |
| New Westminster--Coquitlam | 5 | 1488 | 3% | NDP | donate |
| Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe | 1500 | 3.3% | Liberal | donate | |
| Elmwood--Transcona | 1579 | 5% | NDP | donate | |
| West Nova | 1594 | 3.8% | Liberal | donate | |
| Edmonton--Sherwood Park | 3 | 1668 | 3.4% | Independent | donate |
| Guelph | 1788 | 3% | Liberal | donate | |
| Beauport--Limoilou | 4 | 2032 | 4.2% | Bloc Quebecois | donate |
| Eglinton--Lawrence | 2060 | 4.7% | Liberal | donate | |
| London West | 2121 | 3.7% | Liberal | donate | |
| Mississauga South | 2152 | 4.6% | Liberal | donate | |
| Vancouver Island North | 2497 | 4.4% | NDP | donate | |
| Saanich--Gulf Islands | 1 | 2625 | 4.1% | Liberal | donate |
| North Vancouver | 2820 | 4.9% | Liberal | donate |
Our goal isn't to pick winners, we're just doing the math based on 2008. That said, there's a few places where polling data unambiguously indicates a shift in a swing riding. Here's where we've deviated:
Obviously a lot has changed since 2008, and continues to change in this exciting election. Please also consider donating to the following close races that according to Too Close to Call, currently have opposition candidates within 5% of Conservatives. Many of these surprise swing ridings need all the help they can to get out the vote on Monday!
| Riding | Province | Lead Non-Con | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Random--Burin--St. George's | Newfoundland | Liberal | donate! |
| Central Nova | Nova Scotia | NDP | donate! |
| Miramichi | New Brunswick | Liberal | donate! |
| Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Lévis--Bellechasse | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Mégantic--L'Érable | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Pontiac | Quebec | NDP | donate! |
| Ajax--Pickering | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| Brampton West | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| Don Valley West | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| Kingston and the Islands | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| London North Centre | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| Oshawa | Ontario | NDP | donate! |
| Vaughan | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| York Centre | Ontario | Liberal | donate! |
| Saint Boniface | Manitoba | Liberal | donate! |
| Palliser | Saskatchewan | NDP | donate! |
| Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo | BC | NDP | donate! |
| Nunavut | Nunavut | NDP | donate! |
Things are moving quickly in this exciting election and polling is an inexact science. Please have a look at the assumptions of these projections.
What's the deal with Swing 33? Find out more here (and here). And we've finally got a blog. In short, we're an all volunteer, part-time operation consisting mostly of Mitch Anderson, Amir Attaran and Hugh Stimson.
Tell us what you think at info@swing33.ca or give us a call at (604) 755-3367. You bet we're listening.
Election data from Elections Canada.
Riding boundaries from Geogratis NRC.