Riding note   Vote Margin % Margin Lead Non-Con Link
Kitchener--Waterloo 5 17 0.01% Liberal donate
Vancouver South 20 0.01% Liberal donate
Egmont 55 0.3% Liberal donate
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca 2 68 0.1% Liberal donate
Brampton West 231 0.4% Liberal donate
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar 5 262 1% NDP donate
Welland 300 0.6% NDP donate
Kitchener Centre 5 339 0.8% Liberal donate
Mississauga--Erindale 397 0.7% Liberal donate
Edmonton--Strathcona 5 463 1% NDP donate
Saint John 5 497 1.4% Liberal donate
Western Arctic 5 523 3.8% NDP donate
Oak Ridges--Markham 545 0.7% Liberal donate
Brampton--Springdale 773 1.7% Liberal donate
Burnaby--Douglas 798 1.7% NDP donate
Malpeque 924 4.9% Liberal donate
South Shore--St. Margaret's 932 2.3% NDP donate
Surrey North 1106 3.2% NDP donate
Sault Ste. Marie 1111 2.7% NDP donate
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean 1436 3.9% Bloc Quebecois donate
New Westminster--Coquitlam 5 1488 3% NDP donate
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 1500 3.3% Liberal donate
Elmwood--Transcona 1579 5% NDP donate
West Nova 1594 3.8% Liberal donate
Edmonton--Sherwood Park 3 1668 3.4% Independent donate
Guelph 1788 3% Liberal donate
Beauport--Limoilou 4 2032 4.2% Bloc Quebecois donate
Eglinton--Lawrence 2060 4.7% Liberal donate
London West 2121 3.7% Liberal donate
Mississauga South 2152 4.6% Liberal donate
Vancouver Island North 2497 4.4% NDP donate
Saanich--Gulf Islands 1 2625 4.1% Liberal donate
North Vancouver 2820 4.9% Liberal donate

The 905

Lower Mainland

Maritimes

Did You Know:

You Can Make a Difference!

zoom to see swing ridingsclick on one to donateleading opposition:
Bloc
Grn
Ind
Lib
NDP

Notable Exceptions

Our goal isn't to pick winners, we're just doing the math based on 2008. That said, there's a few places where polling data unambiguously indicates a shift in a swing riding. Here's where we've deviated:

  1. Saanich--Gulf Islands. Polling indicates that the Liberals are not primary contenders in 2011. Elizabeth May of the Green Party appears to be the strongst contender, however the Green Party will likely reach their spending limit for this riding so please consider donating to other close ridings. Read our blog post about this special case here.
  2. Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca. According to too Close to Call, the leading opposition party in Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca is the NDP. Please consider donating to their riding association.
  3. Edmonton--Sherwood Park. The candidate has no donation website.
  4. Beauport--Limoilou. Things are changing quickly in Quebec in this exciting election. According to Too Close to Call, the NDP candidate in this close riding now seems to have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives. Donate to the riding association.
  5. Latest Recommendations. According to the most recent seat projections at Too Close to Call, this riding is no longer close in this fast changing election. Please consider donating elsewhere..

Survey

New Riding Recommendations!

Obviously a lot has changed since 2008, and continues to change in this exciting election. Please also consider donating to the following close races that according to Too Close to Call, currently have opposition candidates within 5% of Conservatives. Many of these surprise swing ridings need all the help they can to get out the vote on Monday!

Riding Province Lead Non-Con Link
Random--Burin--St. George's Newfoundland Liberal donate!
Central Nova Nova Scotia NDP donate!
Miramichi New Brunswick Liberal donate!
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Quebec NDP donate!
Lévis--Bellechasse Quebec NDP donate!
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Quebec NDP donate!
Louis-Saint-Laurent Quebec NDP donate!
Mégantic--L'Érable Quebec NDP donate!
Pontiac Quebec NDP donate!
Ajax--Pickering Ontario Liberal donate!
Brampton West Ontario Liberal donate!
Don Valley West Ontario Liberal donate!
Kingston and the Islands Ontario Liberal donate!
London North Centre Ontario Liberal donate!
Oshawa Ontario NDP donate!
Vaughan Ontario Liberal donate!
York Centre Ontario Liberal donate!
Saint Boniface Manitoba Liberal donate!
Palliser Saskatchewan NDP donate!
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo BC NDP donate!
Nunavut Nunavut NDP donate!

Things are moving quickly in this exciting election and polling is an inexact science. Please have a look at the assumptions of these projections.

About Swing33

What's the deal with Swing 33? Find out more here (and here). And we've finally got a blog. In short, we're an all volunteer, part-time operation consisting mostly of Mitch Anderson, Amir Attaran and Hugh Stimson.

Tell us what you think at info@swing33.ca or give us a call at (604) 755-3367. You bet we're listening.

Election data from Elections Canada.
Riding boundaries from Geogratis NRC.